This post was inspired by a lengthy discussion this week about why mediocre players might make better coaches than great players. In this case “wrong” is a little arbitrary….every team would prefer a false negative to a true negative.  Anyway, these are my favorite examples of each scenario for players-turned-coaches.

It occurred to me while I was filling this out that maybe the perception that great players don’t make good coaches is a base rate issue. After all, there are a little over 3,000 former NBA players, and how many stars? Even if you could come up with a list of 100 stars, that still means you’d have 2,900 players. If you had a 1% hit rate for each group, that still would be 29 great coaches from the not-star list, and only 1 from the star list.

Things to ponder.